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UBS
Sep 17, 2026 · GD
Tags: GD General Dynamics Gulfstream UBS-Evidence-Lab delivery-tracker G700 G800 3Q26
Value Score: 8.0/10
Core Conclusion: UBS's Evidence Lab tracker suggests General Dynamics' Gulfstream deliveries are running below consensus for 3Q, even though underlying flight activity still supports the full-year production outlook. The near-term issue is timing: pre-delivery activity points to more aircraft close to delivery, but not enough to comfortably reach the consensus 40 deliveries for the quarter.
3Q deliveries are behind consensus. Cirium had tracked 24 Gulfstream deliveries through September 14, while both consensus and UBS model 40 for 3Q. UBS's pre-delivery flight analysis suggests about 10 more G700/G800 aircraft could deliver within 30 days, which would put the quarter in the mid-30s rather than at consensus.
Source: Figure 1: 30-day delivery estimate
Source: Figure 2: 3Q delivery tracking versus consensus
The deliverable aircraft pool is stable, not deteriorating. UBS tracks 25 G700, 15 G800, and 1 G650 aircraft that have flown but have not yet been delivered, broadly in line with last quarter's 26 G700, 14 G800, and 1 G650. This is why UBS does not frame the note as a broken production story; the issue is whether enough of the current pool converts before quarter-end.
The delivery-probability method is anchored in historical flight behavior. UBS finds that about 75% of aircraft with 8-11 pre-delivery flights historically delivered within 30 days, compared with about 10% for aircraft with only 1-3 flights. In the current dataset, 3 G700s have 8-11 flights, while 0 G800s are in that highest-confidence bucket.
Source: Figure 4: Delivery probability by flight count
G800 production still looks healthier than the delivery count alone. UBS says G800 flight activity is tracking above deliveries, which implies a healthy production rate and possible catch-up. That matters because the 3Q delivery shortfall may be a timing problem rather than evidence that the underlying G800 ramp is failing.
Source: Figure 11: G800 flight activity
The tracker is useful because Gulfstream deliveries can move quarterly Aerospace revenue and margins. UBS's signal is nuanced: deliveries through mid-September are too low versus consensus, but pre-delivery aircraft activity is
