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Morgan Stanley
Sep 18, 2026 · LLY, NVO
Tags: LLY GLP-1 Mounjaro Zepbound Foundayo oral-GLP script-tracker obesity
Value Score: 8.0/10
Core Conclusion: Morgan Stanley's weekly tracker remains constructive on Lilly's GLP-1 franchise, seeing about 5% upside to 2026 Mounjaro + Zepbound estimates, but the oral-GLP read-through is more mixed. Zepbound and the broader Lilly franchise still look strong, while Foundayo is tracking below consensus on volume and needs a steeper ramp to hit 2026 expectations.
Zepbound was down week over week, but the holiday explains part of the softness. Zepbound TRx/NRx were about 723,800/401,100, versus 791,300/448,700 last week. Morgan Stanley notes total Lilly GLP-1 franchise TRx fell 8.2% w/w, affected by the Labor Day holiday week, so the weekly decline should not be read as a clean demand break.
Foundayo is still the key swing factor. Foundayo TRx/NRx were about 47,000/40,400, slightly below 47,500/40,700 last week. Morgan Stanley says Foundayo appears below consensus based on volume, even though blended pricing is tracking close to its model and inventory remains a swing factor. Under the firm's assumptions, Foundayo would need about 2.2mn TRx, or roughly 58k/week, to reach 2026 U.S. consensus sales.
Source: Exhibit 4: Foundayo TRx trajectory
Oral Wegovy scaled faster, but consensus still asks for a high bar. Morgan Stanley estimates oral Wegovy consensus U.S. sales would require about 8.4mn TRx, or roughly 109k/week, at a $263/month assumed net price. The firm also flags IQVIA undercapture, citing Novo commentary that actual prescriptions for one July week were meaningfully above IQVIA-reported prescriptions.
Source: Exhibit 5: Oral Wegovy TRx trajectory
Oral GLP-1s are visible, but injectables still dominate obesity volume. The obesity market chart shows oral prescriptions becoming a meaningful layer in weekly TRx, but the base remains overwhelmingly injectable. That supports Morgan Stanley's focus on whether oral GLP-1s expand the market without materially cannibalizing injectable Mounjaro/Zepbound growth.
Source: Exhibit 6: Obesity injectable and oral TRx
The key strategic question is whether oral GLP-1s expand the category or simply shift share within it. Morgan Stanley is focused on Foundayo, oral Wegovy, Medicare Bridge adoptio
