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Evercore ISI
Sep 17, 2026 · BJ, WMT, AMZN, COST
Tags: BJ WMT AMZN COST TGT survey-driven retail-membership walmart-plus amazon-prime costco-renewal ai-commerce
Value Score: 8.5/10
Core Conclusion: Evercore ISI's 7th annual Retail Membership Survey argues that retail share is increasingly moving through membership models. Walmart, Amazon, and Costco account for roughly half of U.S. retail sales growth on only about a quarter of retail share; within that, Walmart+ is the clearest incremental household-growth story, Prime is mature but still monetizes best, and Costco renewal appears to have stabilized.
The report's main point is concentration. Evercore sees Walmart, Amazon, and Costco taking roughly 40%-50% of U.S. retail growth in 2027e despite only about 25%-27% share. That makes membership a market-share mechanism, not just a subscription product. Omnichannel, price, service, selection, and convenience are pulling spending toward a few scaled retailers.
Chart takeaway: The Big 3 contribution line remains far above their share of retail sales, which supports the report's view that membership and scale are widening the retail gap.
Linked conclusion: The middle of retail gets squeezed when the largest ecosystems convert loyalty into frequency and wallet share.
Walmart+ is the only Big 3 membership still adding households at scale, up about 20% y/y to roughly 22mn households, or about 16% penetration. Evercore's base case takes Walmart+ to about 30mn members with the spend lift moving from 1.5x to 1.7x by 2030e, worth about $36bn, or roughly 180bps gross and 60bps net annual U.S. comp. The bull case moves to 40mn members at 2.0x, while the "Amazon Dream" scenario imagines 60mn at 3.0x.
Chart takeaway: The Walmart+ base case is not built on Prime-level monetization; it assumes more households and only moderate spend-lift seasoning.
Linked conclusion: That gives Walmart a credible upside path without requiring Walmart+ to immediately look like Prime.
Evercore also pulls Walmart's digital profitability crossover forward to 2028e. The underlying idea is that household growth, frequency, and digital scale compound together. Members interact with Walmart around 37x a year versus about 21x for non-members, and the lift is frequency-driven rather than basket-size-driven.
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