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Deutsche Bank
Sep 17, 2026 · NVS, AZN, MRK
Tags: NOVN company-update physician-survey expert-validation multiple-sclerosis BTK-inhibitor remibrutinib PCSK9 Leqvio Lipfendra competitive-risk valuation
Value Score: 8.0/10
Core Conclusion: Deutsche Bank's physician-survey read-through is genuinely mixed for Novartis. Neurologists see a relevant role for remibrutinib in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS), but mainly as a switch option and only if the full data show a credible effect on disability progression. The cardiovascular feedback is more clearly negative: physicians still rate Leqvio highly, yet most expect once-daily oral PCSK9 drugs to reduce its use. With a Hold rating and a CHF120 target price versus CHF114.28, the report supports product-level optionality rather than a new stock-level bull case.
The note synthesizes three recent third-party physician polls: 52 US and European neurologists on BTK inhibitors in relapsing MS, 53 US cardiologists and primary-care physicians on Merck's oral PCSK9 drug Lipfendra, and 250 US and European cardiologists/primary-care physicians on Leqvio. The samples are useful because they address positioning, decision criteria, and switching intent, but they are directional rather than prescriptions or market-share forecasts.
The result is asymmetric. The MS survey identifies a plausible adoption path for remibrutinib, contingent on the pending disability data. The lipid-lowering surveys identify an already visible convenience threat to Leqvio from oral therapy, even before full real-world access and outcomes evidence mature.
Deutsche Bank values Rhapsido at CHF2.8 per share within a CHF124 per share group net present value (NPV). The combined Rhapsido and remibrutinib MS forecast sits above consensus through most of 2027-2030, but the gap narrows by the end of the period.
Chart takeaway: Deutsche Bank's combined Rhapsido/remibrutinib MS sales path is modestly above consensus from 2027E through 2029E and converges near 2030E.
Linked conclusion: The BTK survey supports the forecast direction, but it does not imply an open-ended upgrade cycle; full disability data still determine whether adoption can exceed the switch-agent niche.
Leqvio carries a larger CHF4.5 per share NPV, based on $3.5bn of risked peak sales in 2029E.
